Armed conflict levels have increased in five countries, with conflict parties exploiting either state weakness or a lack of (international) attention due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Four countries have encountered temporary declines in armed conflicts, mostly due to strategic decisions by governments or rebels to account for impeded logistics and to increase their popular support. Results suggest that COVID-19 provides little opportunities for health diplomacy and cooperation, but it also has not yet driven grievances to a level where they became relevant for armed conflicts. I analyse empirical evidence from Afghanistan, Colombia, India, Iraq, Libya, Pakistan, the Philippines, Thailand and Yemen from the first six months of 2020. These can change the grievances and opportunity structures relevant for armed conflicts to either increase or decrease conflict risks. The pandemic has significant health, economic and political effects. This article studies the impact of COVID-19 on armed conflict.
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